Race of the Day
Saratoga (Race 5) – 6 furlongs (Scheduled post time 3:15pm ET)
Perhaps the most vulnerable morning line favorite on the day is (6) Miss Katie Bug.
It’s not even so much that she couldn’t possibly improve with the drop in class, but what running line in her recent past performances would indicate she’s capable of that?
She’s been beaten a combined 41 lengths in her three most recent starts – against tougher company – and she’ll be asked to chase into a pace that doesn’t appear all that front heavy.
Instead, I’m focusing my attention on (3) KAREN’S GEM, who like the aforementioned favorite, has been beaten by quite a distance in her most recent starts, but each of them has excuses attached.
The Jeremiah Englehart trainee tackled turf routers last time out and was soundly beaten on June 22. Prior to that, she was returning from a short break and again found herself outclassed going long against older restricted allowance types.
She’s back sprinting, appears to be well-spotted, gets the barn’s leading rider aboard and could be much improved from just a bit off what appears to be a hint (if nothing more) of early pace.
The Plays: Win bet (3) KAREN’S GEM.
Exactas/trifectas/superfectas with #1 Simona, #8 Shape Shifter and #9 Our Girl Abby